= 💡Hypothesis H10042 False assumption Traders get this wrong False assumption: 🚫 Volatility risk premium is predictable for options/derivatives ( ~3-5% annualized) Our hypothesis Backed with data Our hypothesis: ✅ Impossible to determine if options are cheap or expensive → Leads to fundamental mispricing Why we think this way Not our guess. There'

💡Hypothesis H10041 False assumption: 🚫 Markets are regulated and participants governed by law Our hypothesis: ✓  Markets are unregulated and traders/exchanges/market makers do what could be illegal in regulated markets

💡Hypothesis H10040 False assumption: 🚫 Individual trader and transaction data not available, everything based on aggregates Fact / Our hypothesis:  ✅ Every on-chain crypto trade by each trader is visible to everyone

💡Hypothesis H10039 False assumption: 🚫 Stock (share) price has an underlying intrinsic value Our hypothesis: ✓ Crypto-assets have no intrinsic value and 1% of BTC addresses hold 90% of supply

💡Hypothesis H10038 False assumption: 🚫Black-Scholes log-normal distribution Our hypothesis: ✓ Extreme kurtosis, fat tails and flash crashes

💡Hypothesis H10037 False assumption: 🚫Portfolio and option ”greeks” are predictable (α, β, Δ, Θ, Γ, ν, ρ, etc) Fact / our hypothesis: ✓ Crypto catastrophically violates all core assumptions (stationarity, liquid markets, predictable relationships, etc) → parameters aren't just "a bit noisier" - they're fundamentally unreliable and

💡Hypothesis H10036 False assumption: 🚫Markets are mature and efficient Our hypothesis: ✓ Markets undergo regime changes and have single points of failure

💡Hypothesis H10035 False assumption: 🚫Trading data is accurate Our hypothesis: ✓ Trading data is fake

💡Hypothesis H10034 False assumption: 🚫VaR based on mean, variance, covariance matrix Our hypothesis: ✓ All inputs unreliable → meaningless given fat tails

💡Hypothesis H10033 False assumption: 🚫 Cash is risk-free and liquid Our hypothesis: ✓ Stablecoins have unknown (perhaps zero) intrinsic value and can stop redemptions (i.e. fully illiquid)

💡Hypothesis H10032 False assumption: 🚫 No margin call risk (non-linear forced liquidation) Our hypothesis: ✓ Margin calls are an essential money-machine for exchanges

💡Hypothesis H10031 False assumption: 🚫 Historical volatility predicts future volatility Fact / Our hypothesis: ✓ Volatility changes significantly and rapidly

💡Hypothesis H10030 xxx

💡Hypothesis H10029 Crypto trades 24/7 but traditional systems use daily open/close prices (especially for fiat, which pegs to stable) so someone is exploiting within-24h prices somehow, and therefore there are certain times during days when prices are systematically higher/lower that end of day open/close prices.

💡Hypothesis H10028 xxx

💡Hypothesis H10027 Money/tokens is "created" or “issued” with off chain IOUs etc. And then inserted into systems/chains. Exchanges do not show all orders, the big purchases/sales are done off chain. Hidden orders. Etc. So there are big discrepancies between what's visible to public,

💡Hypothesis H10026 BTC is "$90k USD$", but in reality nobody buys for 90k USD$, they buy with 90k USDT. So how much did they pay for the BTC in reality? How did they get those 90k USDT? Yes, some bought it 5 minutess ago with a credit card

💡Hypothesis H10025 xxx

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💡Hypothesis H10021 Traders copy each other with same trading strategies: DCA, x,y,z. These are based on technical historical metrics that are useless. Traders miss the fundamental understanding what drives the prices (eg Tether, mafia internal arrangements off-chain, laundering/blackmailing/theft, etc) and that there's no intrinsic

💡Hypothesis H10019 Back-tested models don’t work in future as they are inaccurate, and a model needs to be adjusted all the time to cater for current market dynamics. Also, public LLMs are not trained with real-time data so latest news they do not capture while hedge funds/traders react

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