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Hypothesis

We can best predict BTC price by monitoring what Tether (company) does.

Madjik Team

12 Jan 2026

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Hypothesis H10006

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FALSE ASSUMPTION: 🚫 Volatility risk premium is predictable for options (3-5% annualized) → ✅ FACT / Our Hypothesis = Unable to determine if options are cheap or expensive → Massive derivatives mispricing

= 💡Hypothesis H10042 False assumption Traders get this wrong False assumption: 🚫 Volatility risk premium is predictable for options/derivatives ( ~3-5% annualized) Our hypothesis Backed with data Our hypothesis: ✅ Impossible to determine if options are cheap or expensive → Leads to fundamental mispricing Why we think this way Not our guess. There'

16 Jan 2026 4 min read

FALSE ASSUMPTION: 🚫 Markets are regulated and participants governed by law → ✅ FACT / Our Hypothesis = Markets are unregulated and traders/exchanges/market makers do what could be illegal in regulated markets

💡Hypothesis H10041 False assumption: 🚫 Markets are regulated and participants governed by law Our hypothesis: ✓ Markets are unregulated and traders/exchanges/market makers do what could be illegal in regulated markets

16 Jan 2026

FALSE ASSUMPTION: 🚫 Individual trader and transaction data not available, everything based on aggregates → ✅ FACT / Our Hypothesis = Every on-chain crypto trade by every trader is visible to everyone

💡Hypothesis H10040 False assumption: 🚫 Individual trader and transaction data not available, everything based on aggregates Fact / Our hypothesis: ✅ Every on-chain crypto trade by each trader is visible to everyone

15 Jan 2026

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